keep digging

Seventy-two countries, accounting for around 80% of global emissions, have committed themselves to net-zero targets. According to the Energy Transitions Commission (etc), a think-tank, hitting them by 2050 will require 15 times today’s wind power, 25 times more solar, a tripling of the grid’s size and a 60-fold increase in the fleet of electric vehicles (evs). By 2030 copper and nickel demand could rise by 50-70%, cobalt and neodymium by 150%, and graphite and lithium six- to seven-fold. All told, a carbon-neutral world in 2050 will need 35m tonnes of green metals a year, predicts the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster. Adding aluminium and steel, the etc expects demand between now and then to exceed 6.5bn tonnes.

This is why policymakers fear an almighty supply crunch. The etc expects shortages of market-breaking magnitudes by 2030: some 10-15% for copper and nickel, and 30-45% for other battery metals. When dwindling stocks cause prices to rise, producers will lift output and customers will use scarce materials more efficiently.