Nov 16th 2023
A Shadow looms over the world.
Mr Trump dominates the Republican primary. Several polls have him ahead of President Joe Biden in swing states. In one, for the New York Times, 59% of voters trusted him on the economy, compared with just 37% for Mr Biden. In the primaries, at least, civil lawsuits and criminal prosecutions have only strengthened Mr Trump. For decades Democrats have relied on support among black and Hispanic voters, but a meaningful number are abandoning the party.
America also faces growing hostility abroad, challenged by Russia in Ukraine, by Iran and its allied militias in the Middle East and by China
The greatest threat Mr Trump poses is to his own country. In pursuing his enemies, Mr Trump will wage war on any institution that stands in his way, including the courts and the Department of Justice.
Yet a Trump victory next year would also have a profound effect abroad. The global south would be confirmed in its suspicion that American appeals to do what is right are really just an exercise in hypocrisy.
Mr Trump’s protectionist instincts would be unbound, too. He and his lieutenants are contemplating a universal 10% levy on imports, more than three times the level today. Mr Trump also fired up the economy in his first term by cutting taxes and handing out covid-19 payments. This time, America is running budget deficits on a scale only seen in war and the cost of servicing debts is higher. Tax cuts would feed inflation, not growth.
Mr Trump’s lust for a deal and his sense of America’s interests are unconstrained by reality and unanchored by values.
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